Abstracts

Evolution of Species and Ecosystems: Theoretical Analysis and Computer-Assisted Modeling

The main purpose of the gap–modeling is the creating of such computer models that with good accuracy would predict dynamics of mixed–species mixed–aged forest. Despite of wide development of the given approach there is no model now which is taking into account all complexity of process of growth and thinning of forest stand in full measure. Besides there is also necessity for generalization of the results received in the gap–modeling and definition of the further direction of development of this approach. It is possible to point a number of the rather important tasks existing in the modern gap–modeling.

Firstly, in the gap–modeling a comparison of results obtained within frameworks of various models is carried out rarely. At the same time there is a certain necessity for creating of criterions of correctness of the gap–models. Secondly, it needs to carry out the analysis of the concrete equations of dynamics of growth of individual tree in order to determine what approaches are the most preferable. In third, in view of practical orientation of these models it is possible on the basis of the existing models to consider some problems of optimal planning. In fourth, the modern computer technologies allow to calculate rather bulky models, that creates the good preconditions for the greater detailing of the modern gap–models and accordingly for construction of exact forecasts. For this reason it is necessary to define optimal variant of the base gap–model including all primary factors of development of forest.

In the present work the solving of the considered problems is offered. The necessity of making of comparison of the modeling results with the real data not only at quantitative level but also on qualitative level is proved. The comparison of results obtained with using various known equations of growth of a tree is carried out. The functions, which most well describe dynamics of considered parameters, are chosen. On the basis of the gap–model FORSKA_mod the models of optimal felling of forest are offered. A modification of this model taking into account seasonal prevalence in the forest development is offered.

Note. Abstracts are published in author's edition

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