Abstracts

Siberian participants

Definitions and general laws of developing catastrophies are given. It is stated, that it is necessary to use determinate-probability models for predicting and mathematical modeling catastrophies. The necessity of such an approach is discussed on the examples of analysis of "impact" catastrophy problems, "nuclear winter", atmospheric tornado initiation and initiation and spread of forest fires. An effect of conjugate heat and mass exchange on initiation and development of natural and technogenic catastrophies is considered. A refined mathematical model of forest fires and an effect of mass forest fires on a safe functioning of potentially dangerous objects are discussed. It is stated, that a steady ecologo-mathematical monitoring of potentially dangerous objects using a theory of cojugate problems of reactive media mechanics is necessary.

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© 1996-2001, Institute of computational Techologies SB RAS, Novosibirsk
© 1996-2001, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science, Novosibirsk