Сибирское отделение РАН
Analyzing the population dynamic consequences of spatio-temporal environmental change is a formidable challenge for spatial ecology. Here we are concerned with the measurement of isolation of habitat fragments in landscapes affected by on-going habitat loss and fragmentation and how that isolation influences population dynamics (Hanski 1998, Hanski 1999). Our approach involves two steps. First, to obtain a historical record of habitat loss and fragmentation in the focal landscape, the record consisting of snapshots of the distribution of the suitable habitat at sufficiently short intervals and extending sufficiently long back in time. Second, to construct a spatially realistic population model that can be simulated in the changing landscape (see Hanski & Ovaskainen 2000). Starting from some plausible initial condition, the distribution of the species is simulated to arrive at a predicted pattern of habitat occupancy at some particular point in time. We describe a metapopulation model that has been constructed for this purpose, and we give an example on a changing landscape of boreal forests in Finland (see also Komonen et al. 2000).
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