Сибирское отделение РАН
Estimating the impact of terrestrial biota on global budgets of greenhouse gases (CO2, CO, CH4, N20, NOx, NM-VOC, some others) is a highly debating question of current science, policy and economics. Large uncertainties are inherent for the results presented by current accounting systems at the national (continental) level, even if sophisticated and very informative approaches are used (Nilsson et al., 2000). Any decent implementations of international treaties on global warming mitigation require knowledge of full budgets of major greenhouse gases (GHG) at the national (regional) level with clearly defined limits of acceptable uncertainties. In order to achieve this, a system integrity of methodology-information-modeling should be provided and a number of mandatory principles is obligatory to be implemented in evaluating schemes: (1) a relevant version of the coupled landscape-ecosystem approach (CLEA) should serve as a system methodological basis of the account; (2) all GHGs should not be considered separately, but as a process combination, expressed by explicit algorithms; (3) real environmental characteristics (climate, transformation of vegetation, pollution, etc.) have to be used, at least for calibration of the information used; (4) only accounting schemes which are able to describe the temporal dynamics of ecosystems are acceptable; and (5) the evaluation and consistent analysis of uncertainties of major intermediate and final results in a form applicable to fuzzy systems is obligatory. Any relevant application of the CLEA requires a comprehensive description of all landscape components (climate, lithosphere, soils, vegetation, atmosphere, hydrosphere, anthroposphere), and the information should be sufficient for process modeling for "real" landscapes. It defines needs to use 1) georeferenced multi-layer GIS, 2) regional empirical and semi-empirical knowledge, and 3) multi-sensor concept of remote sensing applications. One of a very few solid approaches is the use of the RHYMED (Regional Hybrid Model of Ecosystem Dynamics) which should be relevantly tuned to scale and information (Shvidenko et al., 2000). The paper contains a description of the information base for Northern Eurasia (at continental and macro-regional scale), major models and some applications to the full carbon budget of terrestrial biota of Russia. Modifications of the error propagation theory applicable for fuzzy systems are discussed.
Nilsson, S., Shvidenko, A., Stolbovoi, V., et al. 2000. Full Carbon Account for Russia. IR-00-21, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 180 pp.
Shvidenko, A., Apps, M., Cramer, W., Nilsson, S., et al. 2000. Regional Hybrid Model of Ecosystem Dynamics (RHYMED) - A Tool to Quantify the Northern Eurasia Terrestrial Ecosystems Carbon Budget. In Biodiversity and Dynamics of Ecosystems in Northern Eurasia (BDENE), Volume 1, Part 2, Novosibirsk, 236-238.
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