International Union for Circumpolar Health Ministry of Public Health and Social Development of RF Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences Medical Polar Fund “Science” The Northern Forum

Abstracts

The North place in geo planetary world. Urbanization traditions and problems

Global climate warming comes out to the highest degree in northern territories. According forecasts, by the middle XXI century the average annual air temperature is expected to 3-40C increase in Western Siberia and to 2-30C increase in Yakutia and along the entire Arctic coast. Climate warming may result in a number of negative consequences for public health in the Russian Subpolar Region. Climate warming in this territory results in degradation of permanent frost zones – their square may 12-15% decrease by the middle of XXI century and their border will move to 160–200, or by some estimates even 400 km north-west. The greatest risk of permanent frost degradation is forecasted in territories of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions, in the Republic of Komi, in the Krasnoyarsk Territory, and the northern part of the Tyumen region. Over one fourth of 5-storey dwelling houses in Yakutsk, Vorkuta, and Tiksi may become unexploitable already at the next decade; the number of emergencies in plumbing structures will increase and lead to growing enteric infections. Climate unbalance, showing in increased average annual temperatures, increased number of days with temperatures and precipitation high for the North leads to some infectious diseases movement from middle latitudes to the north. Ixodic area may move to the north, areas of some parasitoses, in particular filariasis, were shown to expand.

According to the study of daily population mortality and air temperature in a number of Russian cities using time series analysis, a “high temperature population load” index has been worked out (Revich, Shaposhnikov, 2005). Additional mortality in the Siberian district may be from 200 to 1,500 deaths annually.

For North indigenous people (158,000 people), the climate warming, resulting in sea ice decrease, reindeers migration paths and feeds provision change, sea animals number decrease, may lead to cutting down of traditional hunting, which in its turn results in traditional nutrition disorder. Questioning of Chukotka indigenous people has shown that most of them estimate the current climate warming as negative [Kavry, Boltunov, 2006].

Note. Abstracts are published in author's edition

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Last update: 06-Jul-2012 (11:52:05)